Thoughts on the Market

Key themes have the potential to shape economic developments and drive certain sectors for decades to come.

The longstanding relationship between the U.S. and Europe is changing, with deep consequences for the euro area and its economy. We look into the impact of this metamorphosis on the corporate sector and discuss the related investment opportunities.

Long-term economic trends have left the U.S. economy increasingly reliant on spending by upper-income households. We unpack the potential implications for economic stability and Federal Reserve policymaking.

The White House has made broad interpretations of existing legislative authority to make unilateral policy moves. We examine how this centralized ad hoc decision-making raises structural concerns and how the economic policy framework may evolve.

The greenback’s volatile year underscores the interplay between cyclical drivers and longer-term valuation challenges—factors that could have implications for global equity leadership.

We’re increasingly of the view that a series of disruptions are masking a very real cyclical U.S. economic slowdown underneath the surface.

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

We outline some of the proposed federal budget measures, and the effect they may have on Canadians and their families.

Despite a second consecutive rate cut, a hawkish turn from the Fed supports our view that it’s on hold until at least 2026. While that may have previously caused market turbulence, investors seem content with the idea the Fed has already done enough.